Case · Housing Association
A 103-year-old clay tile roof — kept in service with data, not guesswork
In 2003 the engineers said: “The roof is 80 years old — it must be replaced.” The board chose to wait. 22 years later the roof is still in service — and the association has ~7 million DKK in the bank instead of a mortgage loan.
Headline numbers
7M DKK
Liquidity retained
Kept in the association’s funds instead of a mortgage loan
24M DKK
Future saving
Over the next 15 years (vs. a new roof)
−95%
Acute damages (K3) reduced
2,205 → 114 items
D → C
Energy rating raised
Without replacing the roof
−86%
Deferred capital (M7)
32M → 4.5M DKK
“The roof is 80 years old. It must be replaced.”
— consulting engineers, 2003
The simple story: one decision, every year
The board are co-op shareholders — not structural engineers. Since 2017 they have made exactly one strategic decision each year: “continue minimum maintenance” — based on engine-calculated data from more than 30,000 individually documented roof tiles.
The engine doesn’t change what the board chooses. It changes the data quality behind the choice — the difference between deciding in the dark and deciding with documentation of 30,000 roof tiles in hand.
The journey, 2003 → 2026
- 2003
Roof reaches its 80-year expected lifespan. The board chooses to defer — but without ongoing data.
- 2017
DroneTjek flies over the 12 courtyards for the first time. The engine finds 2,205 acute damages — 3× the 2020 level.
- 2020
Second systematic report. Acute damages down to 735 (−67%).
- 2024
Acute damages down to 114 (−95%). The roof keeps going.
- 2026
103-year-old clay tile roof still in service. ~7M DKK in the bank.
Engine-calculated deferred capital (M7) — risk exposure fell 86% in 7 years
M7 indicates the order of magnitude of the potential reactive exposure — the deferred capital that would escalate into cascade damage if no maintenance were performed. It is not a bill to be paid all at once.
| Point in time | Deferred capital | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 — baseline | 31.98M DKK | start (~2,205 acute damages) | Higher than the price of a whole new roof (27.9M). That’s how critical it was. |
| 2020 — after 3 years | 10.66M DKK | −67% since 2017 | 735 acute damages. Minimum maintenance starts to take effect. |
| 2024 — after 7 years | 4.51M DKK | −86% since 2017 | 114 acute damages. Early detection keeps damage at K1/K2 level. |
The key pattern: acute damages (K3) fall because the engine detects them 1–3 years earlier — while they’re still at an early, cheap stage. Early detection = lower cascade factor = lower capital outlay.
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